Monday, October 13, 2008

Is Travel Industry Downturn For Real? Here's Some Proof

In Jan 2008 Reuters reported - "Travelport CEO sees no major travel slowdown." Well, nine months down the line, it's turnaround time - the travel industry is feeling the effects of economic downturn. Airlines traffic is down, hotel occupancy has declined and corporates are renegotiating their existing deals.

I wanted to check if Google searches display a similar trend. And, you bet - it does. In fact, you can easily notice the down trend for past 4 years.

Here are some screenshots from Google trends for major travel keywords:

Keyword: travel, tours


Keyword: hotel, hotels


Keyword: holiday, holidays


Keyword: vacation, vacations


Keyword: timeshare


With the internet penetration and the number of Google users growing every year in leaps and bounds, the decline in these keywords displays a trend to take note of. Combine this with the actual booking data - the real picture would emerge. Does anyone know where to find broad industry data on travel bookings?

UPDATE(18/12/2008): Thanks for the comments. As @Anonymous and @art wanted - I found the trend for hotel brand keywords for 3 big names - Hilton, Holiday Inn & Marriot - sadly, it's the same trend. See the screenshot below...



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5 comments:

  1. Given the vague nature of the travel terms used in this research, it's possible that the trend you have identified is actually a trend in changing usage of search terms as well as actual travel searches. Fewer and fewer people are searching on such a broad term as "hotels" - internet users are more experienced than ever and multiple word phrases are the norm.

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  2. @Anonymous - You are partly right - users are moving to more local-specific travel searches, say 'london hotels' instead of 'hotels'. But again, you can see this downturn even on those local keywords - try it :)

    Also, lets not forget, the number of internet users itself has quadrupled from 2003, so we should've anyway seen a growth in any of these searches, but that's not so.

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  3. The report is interesting. I wonder if you published the same report but used a brand name like Hilton Hotels or Holiday Inn Hotels, would you see the same trend?

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  4. @Anonymous & @art: See the Update and screenshot - the hotelbrand keywords are in decline too! No offence meant - but this is the fact.

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  5. Based on our trends I agree with anonymous's comment re: change in travel searches. Granted we're so tiny we barely register in the marketplace but our specialty travel content at Travelbeat.net is organically generating double digit growth each month. We've no time or money for marketing at the moment so we're stunned -- also by the increasing # of repeat visitors. Search terms may be more specific than city/town destinations. We can only thank Google and Yahoo for sending these specific searches our way. Still the report must be considered by travel marketers.

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